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Steelers Sanctuary predicts AFC over/unders

There’s just over one week to go until the 2018 NFL season kicks off. Teams rosters are just about set so let’s take a crack at predicting the over/unders for the AFC. You’re welcome in advance for the extra income you may receive from the man.

AFC – East

New England Patriots (11) – I can list several reasons why the Patriots will not win eleven games this season. Lack of wide receivers, Brady/Belichick turmoil, bad defense, blah blah blah. As long as Brady and Belichick are not killing each other and they play in that division, I’m going over.

My Pick: OVER

Miami Dolphins (6.5) – News flash: Ryan Tannehill is not a good quarterback. Jarvis Landry and Ndamukong Suh leaving will hurt this team as well. This is the year the Dolphins bottom out and draft their next franchise quarterback.

My Pick: UNDER

Buffalo Bills (6) – Sean McDermott is a pretty good football coach. Getting this team to the playoffs last year is a testament to that. Unfortunately he will have some rookie quarterback problems to deal with in Josh Allen. The future looks bright in Buffalo, but not quite yet.

My Pick: UNDER

New York Jets (6) – This is a tough one. Count me as one who is on the Sam Darnold bandwagon. The talent on offense around him is so-so at best. The defense is solid, and they are playing a last place schedule so there’s hope for improvement over last season.

My Pick: OVER

AFC – North

Pittsburgh Steelers (10.5) – Well here it is Steelers fans. This offense looks primed to have a very big year, but the defense is suspect. Where have we heard this before right? Let’s face it, this team should go 6-0 or 5-1 at worst in this division. The rest of the schedule has some tough games against the Falcons, Saints, Patriots, Panthers, and Jaguars. As far as on the field, the team did little to improve themselves in 2018. They signed bargain free agents Jon Bostic and Morgan Burnett. That’s a slight upgrade for the defense. The draft may offer little help in the short term with the exception of James Washington. He should be an impact player for the offense. Other draft picks like Terrell Edmunds, Mason Rudolph, and Chuks Okorafor probably won’t help at all this season. Having said that, I have to believe 11 wins is the floor for this team.

My Pick: OVER

Baltimore Ravens (8) – Joe Flacco…….enough said. Don’t believe the hype about how good he’s looked in pre-season, he’s terrible. I’m not convinced Lamar Jackson is any better, especially as a rookie. They are pretty much the exact opposite of the Steelers. Baltimore has a solid defense and a shaky offense. In a league that leans heavily to the offense, the Ravens are in for a long season.

My Pick: UNDER

Cincinnati Bengals (6.5) – The Bengals are my pick for second place in this division. Andy Dalton is just good enough to get you close, but nowhere good enough to get you over the top. How Marvin Lewis is still the head coach of this team is a complete mystery to me. A good head coach would make this talented roster scary, good thing they don’t have one of those. Despite that, this team will be the Steelers biggest threat in the AFC North in 2018.

My Pick: OVER

Cleveland Browns (5.5) – Hue Jackson……..enough said. There may be no more dysfunctional team in the NFL than the Cleveland Browns. The show Hard Knocks has given us a good look into how bad it is. This roster is bursting with talent, but it won’t matter. Whenever general manager John Dorsey gets around to firing Hue, and hiring a real head coach, I can’t take this team seriously.

My Pick: UNDER

AFC – South

Jacksonville Jaguars (9) – The Jaguars are my pick for biggest bust in the NFL right here. This is a young team who already thinks way too highly of themselves. Jalen Ramsey can’t shut up, and he’s destined to be a distraction. The Jags offense just took a hit with wide receiver Marquis Lee now being done for the season. Oh ya one last thing….. their quarterback is Blake Bortles. Jacksonville will miss the playoffs in 2018.

My Pick: UNDER

Houston Texans (8.5) – This team is very good. I’m not one of the many who are overreacting to Deshaun Watson’s performance last season. He still has to prove it over a full season. If he does however, this team is in the conversation for a trip to the Super Bowl.

My Pick: OVER

Tennessee Titans (8) – I like this team, but I don’t like this quarterback. Marcus Mariota has not lived up to being the number two pick in the draft. New head coach Mike Vrabel has his work cut out for him getting more out of this offense.

My Pick: UNDER

Indianapolis Colts (6.5) – Is having Andrew Luck back enough to get the Colts seven wins? I’m not so sure about that. This roster is terrible. Not to mention that new head coach Frank Reich was what, their third choice? Ya this team will be bad again this season.

My Pick: UNDER

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers (9.5) – The Chargers have as much talent as anyone in the AFC. Injuries continue to plague this team however. Pro-Bowl corner Jason Verrett has already been lost for the season with a torn Achilles. The Chargers still have loads of good players on both sides of the ball. L.A. should easily win this division.

My Pick: OVER

Kansas City Chiefs (8.5) – The question in Kansas City is how good will Pat Mahomes be in his first year as a starter? Andy Reid does have a knack for getting the best out of his quarterbacks. There are plenty of weapons for him on offense with players like Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, and Travis Kelce. The defense isn’t very good, and lost it’s best player in Marcus Peters. At the very least this team will be a fun team to watch.

My Pick: OVER

Oakland Raiders (8) – How many more wins do we expect now that Jon Gruden is the head coach in Oakland? His tenure is not off to a great start with his best defensive player still holding out. Rumors are getting louder and louder that the team is considering trading Khalil Mack. That would make giving up a third round pick for Martavis Bryant the second worst move of the off-season. The Raiders will be better than the six wins they had in 2017. How much better remains to be seen.

My Pick: UNDER

Denver Broncos: (7) – This is a tough division to begin with. Add to that the Broncos have the worst quarterback in the division and things don’t look so good. Case Keenum is not anything to get excited about, and they will struggle on offense with him under center. The defense should be good again with the Von Miller/Bradley Chubb combo at outside linebacker. Reaching .500 will be a challenge for this team.

My Pick: UNDER

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